I’ve been reading material from both ends of the political spectrum this election cycle, and it’s amazing to me that both sides are positive their candidate will win–maybe in a landslide.
There’s no way to spin that. One side or the other is delusional–we just don’t know which.
I’ve seen top Obama and Romney advisors declare with full conviction that the race is going their way. Usually you can tell which one is just spouting talking points and which is sitting pretty. Not this time.
Pundits from both sides of the aisle are split sharply on what turnout will look like on Tuesday. These opposing views of the 2012 electorate seem to account for the often wide disparity between poll results.
But pundits believe so thoroughly in their own models that they step out on very thin limbs…
For example you can always count on Paul Krugman to call someone names. Today’s column is entitled: “You’re Stupid If You Think It’s Close.”
Do I really need to add that he thinks Obama’s chances are overwhelming? He goes so far as to suggest that journalists who dare to say otherwise are knowingly lying to their viewers/readers and should be prosecuted.
Nate Silver of the highly respected blog FiveThirtyEight gives Obama an 85% chance of winning and projects O will get 306 electoral votes. He’s made no secret that he’s rooting for Obama, but still claims his model is unbiased.
On the other hand, Michael Barone, conservative, but by no means a hack, expects Romney to win 315 to 223.
Karl Rove, more partisan than Barone, but still acknowledged as a pretty smart guy, expects Romney to get “at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”
A more moderate RealClearPolitics.com average of the polls has them at a virtual tie, and RCP has done pretty well historically.
Each side regularly calls the other side “delusional,” but only one side can be right.
When the losing side wakes up to a surprising result, will they think, “Hmm, maybe my news sources weren’t as trustworthy as I thought they were?” Or will they start shouting about “stolen elections,” racism, union thugs, or what have you?
I know what MSNBC will do in the case of a Romney win. They’ve already begun doing it.
Romney voters are racist. Romney owns the electronic voting machines. Republicans have suppressed voting–oh wait, that was the Black Panthers. I’m sure they were punished, right? What’s that? Eric Holder only prosecutes whites who intimidate blacks and not vice versa? Gotcha. But it’s the Romney voters who are racist? Riiiight.
There are already dozens of reports of electronic voting machines checking Obama when the voter chose Romney.
There are people from NAACP breaking voting laws at a Houston polling place–actually walking Obama voters to the front of a long line–with nary a finger lifted by officials there.
The SEIU has promised to send 2000 “poll watchers” out across the country. They’ve already sent mailers to union members telling them their voting history is a matter of public record (untrue) and that they better vote with the union.
Libs are threatening to riot if Romney wins.
But it’s the Tea Party that’s extremist, right? And Republicans are the ones trying to steal the elections, right? Please.
If Obama wins, I will be surprised, and perhaps I’m one of the delusional. Perhaps I just give the electorate more credit that I should.
But I do know that if Obama legitimately wins this election, I’ll spend plenty of time examining my assumptions and news sources. I hope you will, too.